Maersk said the disruption to shipping from the Red Sea crisis was expected to continue until the end of the year. Despite a sharp drop in quarterly earnings, the Danish shipping giant still beat expectations and raised its full-year profit forecast as a result.
Matuki, a bellwether for global trade, pointed to strong demand for container shipping and an optimistic forecast range of 2.5 to 4.5 percent growth this year as ships avoid the Red Sea and take a detour to Africa. Matuki raised its full-year 2024 EBITDA forecast to between $4 billion and $0 billion, well above its previous forecast range of $1 billion to $6 billion.
First-quarter EBITDA fell to $1.59 billion from $3.97 billion a year earlier, but was still higher than analyst forecasts of $1.46 billion. Since December, to avoid the risk of container liners in the Red Sea, Matuki and its peers have chosen to bypass Africa, causing freight rates to rise with the length of the voyage.
Maersk CEO incent Cle said that this approach not only supported the recovery of the company's first quarter performance, but also improved the outlook for the next few quarters, he pointed out in an interview with The Whole Times that there is no sign that the tension in the Red Sea has eased, and expects the situation to continue at least until the second half of this year. Therefore, it is not optimistic about returning to the Red Sea-Suez Canal in the near future.
However, Mr Cowen also warned that while the market was performing well, there would be overcapacity this year and next as new container ships were launched, adversely affecting shipping lines' earnings. Spot freight rates, which had doubled to $350 per container at the start of the year, have slowed, he said, with Bemsteln analysts forecasting a 15 percent increase in container retention by 2024 to 2025, leading to a glut of capacity.
In response to the "Da" wheel crash of the Baltimore bridge accident, Maersk's chief executive officer Ko Wensheng said at the company's quarterly results press conference that the U.S. investigation is still ongoing, and Maersk does not expect to assume any financial responsibility for the incident. He stressed that as the investigation progresses, new facts may be revealed, but nothing has been found that points to Maersk's responsibility.
In addition, Maersk also mentioned that the owner of the ship, Grace ocean, has declared general average, which means that all cargo on board the "Da" has been detained as part of the legal process to allocate the costs of the accident. As things stand, the cost of compensation related to bridge collisions is expected to be close to $4 billion, meaning that all parties involved, including shipowners, operators, charterers and shippers, will need to contribute to cover costs related to the accident.
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