Early end of peak shipping season? The SCFI index has fallen for ten straight weeks
After hitting a year high of 3,733.8 points in early July, the Shanghai export container Freight Index (SCFI) has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks.
According to the latest data released by the Shanghai HNA Stock Exchange on September 13, the SCFI index fell 215.63 points to 2,510.95 points last week, a weekly decline of 7.9%, and the freight rates of the four major routes in Europe and the United States continued to fall, of which the European line and the Mediterranean line fell more.
Last week, the FEU freight rate for the Far East to the West fell by $111 to $5,494, a weekly decline of 1.98%; The freight rate of the Far East to the United States East line fell by $673 per FEU to $6,838, a weekly decline of 8.96%; The freight rate of the Far East to Europe line fell by $618 per TEU to $2,841, a weekly decline of 17.86%; The Far East to Mediterranean line freight rate fell $458 per TEU to $3,365, a weekly decline of 11.98%.
On the oceanic line, the freight rate from the Far East to Kansai, Japan, was unchanged from the previous week at $298 per TEU; From the Far East to Kanto, Japan, freight per TEU was $306, up $1 from the previous week; Freight rates from the Far East to Southeast Asia fell $20 per TEU from the previous week to $447; Far East to South Korea freight per TEU rose $8 from the previous week to $147.
For the recent freight market trend, analysts believe that the current European route capacity is at a high level, and the traditional peak season has a trend of ending early. With the decline in market volume, most shipping companies have opened the strategy of lowering prices, and market competition has intensified. At the same time, the transportation demand in the US market lacks growth momentum and the supply and demand fundamentals lack support. As there are many risk factors in the current container shipping market, including the tense geopolitical situation, the threat of port strikes in the East of the United States, and Sino-European and Sino-US trade relations, the future will still face greater uncertainty.
Industry insiders pointed out that the United States East strike doubts increased, many United States East route cargo transferred to the United States West, slowing down the United States West freight pressure. The Old Testament will expire on September 30, but the New Testament negotiations still can not reach a consensus, in the negotiation results are not clear, the risk of strike is still in the United States is expected to decline in the two or three weeks, the risk of freight decline increases.
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Euro zone economic recovery headwinds, weak transport demand, last week Europe, the Mediterranean route fell more. Although major container shipping companies such as Maersk have supported freight rates to retain chips for the upcoming European line contract negotiations, due to the continued investment of new ships, there are still overtime ships to compete for the market, and the freight rate trend is likely to continue to shake.
The industry further said that some of the Christmas goods have been shipped in advance, and it is expected that the freight rate will be reduced by the end of September, and it is not ruled out that the container company will arrange empty shifts on October 1.
In addition to the risk of strikes, the United States is set to raise tariffs on some Chinese-made products. Starting September 27, tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles will rise to 100 percent, solar cells to 50 percent, and electric vehicle batteries, key minerals, steel, aluminum, masks and shore container cranes to 25 percent. In addition, tariff increases on other products, including semiconductor chips, will also take effect over the next two years. This policy will undoubtedly greatly affect Sino-US trade, and the outlook for the quantity of goods is not optimistic.
