The data showed Maersk's fourth-quarter earnings fell
Maersk is due to report its third-quarter results on October 31. According to senior analysts at Sydbank, Maersk is expected to report earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $5.6 billion in 2024. A possible port strike in the US East, coupled with the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, is likely to keep Maersk and its competitors profitable, with Maersk's 2025 EBIT expected to fall significantly to between $970 million and $1.2 billion.
Mikkel Emil Jensen, senior analyst at Sydbank, said: "If Maersk wants to remain profitable in 2025, the Red Sea crisis must continue. At the same time, strikes in the US as early as January could also help maintain earnings."
Analysts said a widespread and prolonged strike at the US East and US Gulf ports was highly likely. While this will disrupt global supply chains, it will help boost Maersk's earnings next year.
On October 25, the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX) issued a joint statement to resume negotiations at a November meeting in New Jersey to discuss all outstanding issues in pursuit of an agreement by January 15, 2025. Until then, the two sides will not discuss details of the negotiations with the media.
On October 1st a three-day strike by 45,000 American dockworkers ended with a tentative deal to raise wages. On the one hand, the ILA strongly opposes the automation of container ports. USMX, on the other hand, would like to see efficiency improvements at U.S. ports in an effort to keep pace with major Asian ports.
Mikkel Emil Jensen, "If they can't come to an agreement, it's likely that there will be a strike, and the strike could last longer than three days."
According to Mikkel Emil Jensen, "This means that if there is another strike, the U.S. will put more political pressure on Maersk and other companies." Of course, this will also affect the US economy.
"The strike is positive for Maersk's earnings. But of course, it also creates a lot of unpredictability and frustration for customers. It's already a difficult market to navigate and predict."
According to Sydbank analysts, this is no easy task for Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc to soberly forecast 2025 performance.
"When Maersk announces its guidance for 2025, expect a big change in earnings and perhaps a negative EBIT."
Maersk, like its rivals, far exceeded expectations in the first three quarters of the year, largely thanks to the Red Sea crisis, but also due to port and supply chain disruptions that led shippers to bring forward shipments and push up rates.
Sydbank's senior analyst said, "With the global economy hitting the brakes, it is difficult for freight volumes to grow. Even if the crisis in the Red Sea continues, freight rates will continue to fall.
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"If the Red Sea crisis can be resolved next year, the revenue of the container shipping industry will drop significantly."
On Oct. 21, Maersk again raised its full-year guidance for 2024 and now expects 2024 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $11 billion to $11.5 billion and EBIT of $5.2 billion to $5.7 billion.
Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, Maersk EBITDA was about $8.5 billion, and EBIT was about $4.44 billion, which means that Maersk's EBITDA in the fourth quarter will reach $2.5 billion to $3 billion, while EBIT will reach $760 million to $1.26 billion, which is still a fairly high level.
