Look! The Houthis stop attacking commercial vessels! Which shipping companies will return to the Red Sea? !
On January 19, local time, the Gaza ceasefire agreement officially took effect, and the Houthi armed forces also announced on the same day that they would only attack ships linked to Israel.
Which shipping companies will be the first to return to the Red Sea route is the most concerned question in the shipping industry at present.
It is understood that the Houthi statement was addressed to shipping companies, ship management companies, government agencies, Marine insurance companies, trade unions and shipping organizations.
The statement said the Houthis would immediately cease attacks on three categories of ships: those managed or operated by Israeli individuals or entities, those heading to Israeli ports, and those owned or flagged by U.S. or British entities.
But only after the ceasefire is fully implemented will the Houthis stop sanctioning vessels wholly owned by Israel or flying Israeli flags.
It is understood that the Gaza ceasefire agreement is divided into three stages, the first stage is six weeks, Israeli troops withdraw from parts of Gaza, the second and third stages will release all prisoners and achieve a permanent ceasefire.
Given the contradictions between the two sides, the second and third phase of the ceasefire agreement can be successfully implemented in doubt, which means that six weeks later, the Red Sea crisis may restart.
Therefore, the industry generally believes that shipping companies are currently in a wait-and-see state, until the ceasefire agreement is fully implemented and the situation is stable, they will gradually resume transit through the Red Sea. The wait and see period could last months.
"The situation needs to be stable before shipping returns to pre-conflict levels and it may take longer for container routes to recover," said Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at shipping trade group BIMCO.
Statistics show that the detour of the Cape of Good Hope takes 25 percent longer than using the Suez Canal, and shipping companies' freight costs increase by 15 to 20 percent.
In the current situation, if there is a ceasefire and the Suez route is resumed, the spot rates in the market could fall significantly.
In response, the two shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both said that after Hamas and Israel announced the ceasefire, they will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and will not immediately return to the Red Sea.
A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said: "The agreement has just been reached. We will closely analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea."
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Hapag-lloyd had already said in June that the ceasefire would not mean an immediate resumption of Suez Canal traffic because attacks by Houthi militants from Yemen were still possible.
A Maersk spokesman said: "It is too early to speculate on timing. It takes four to six weeks to reschedule."
It is worth mentioning that if any shipping companies decide to return to the Red Sea route, CMA CGM may be one of the candidates to watch.
As early as November 2024, the company had repeatedly hinted at its intention to resume routes via the Suez Canal.
Although the Houthis said they would stop attacking commercial vessels, shipping companies remain on the sidelines, saying it is too early to fully return to the Red Sea.
